Playbook replay
Performance-vs-baseline check
Scores a sponsored post against the creator's own recent organic posts, so the verdict is fair to both sides.
Run for Lumira, a demo brand we invented for this page. No customer data. Nothing here runs against a live account.
Every session here was run once and saved, against a demo brand or public data. On your own account Naise works from your brand voice, your campaigns and your connected channels, so it reasons about your data instead of a stand-in.
Sponsored posts almost always underperform organic ones, so a raw comparison is unfair by construction. The useful question is whether it underperformed by more than this creator's usual sponsored gap.
Pulling the last 12 organic posts to establish a baseline, then scoring the sponsored one against it rather than against a category average.
Verdict: it over-performed, and the raw number says the opposite.
| Set | Posts | Median reach | Median ER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic, last 12 | 12 | 47k | 5.2% |
| Our sponsored post | 1 | 41k | 4.6% |
| Their other sponsored posts | 3 | 33k | 3.4% |
Against organic, ours is down 13% on reach and 0.6 points on ER. That is the number that gets quoted in a wrap report, and it reads as a miss.
Against their own sponsored baseline, ours is up 24% on reach and up 1.2 points on ER. This creator's audience discounts sponsored content by about a third as a rule, and ours took roughly half that hit.
Why, most likely. Their three other sponsored posts all open with the product in frame. Ours opens with 6 seconds of them talking before the product appears. That is the only structural difference between the four.
Recommendation: renew, and write the delayed-product-reveal into the brief.
Two caveats on how much weight to put on this.
One post is one post. A 24% lift on a single sample is directional, not proven, and the honest way to report it is "one post, promising" rather than a percentage in a headline.
The 12 organic posts include two outliers that ran on a trending sound, which pulls the organic median up. Excluding them, the organic median reach is 43k and our gap narrows to 5%. I have kept them in above because removing outliers to make your own number look better is how wrap reports stop being trusted.
Naise created an artifact
Campaign post scored against the creator's organic and sponsored medians, with the outlier effect disclosed.
Scorecard
| Set | Median reach | Median ER |
|---|---|---|
| Organic, last 12 | 47k | 5.2% |
| Our sponsored post | 41k | 4.6% |
| Their other sponsored | 33k | 3.4% |
Against organic: -13% reach. Against their own sponsored baseline: +24%.
Recommendation
Renew. Write the delayed product reveal into the brief. Report it as "one post, promising", not as a headline percentage.
That was a sample. Run it on your own brand.
Naise reads your brand, your channels, and your market, then does this against your real data.
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